Project summary

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) continues to provide, with the necessary constraints, a valuable and productive conceptual, methodological and empirical framework in economic study. The most promising conceptual refinement of the standard EMH is currently the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). However, even this version does not take the research on the subject very far, keeping it within the biologist paradigm. In this context, the research project aims to develop the latter hypothesis by formalising the adaptive behavioural preference, which will “filter” the integration of information available in the financial market, so that it can ultimately lead to the concept of a natural price, which is a self-sustaining market price. Also along the lines of self-sustainability, a co-evolutionary model of information – preference – wantable decision (along the lines of Irving Fisher’s suggestion) is proposed, i.e. not optimal decision. On this basis, the project will also try to propose to the scientific community a generalising hypothesis on the mechanism of the financial market, but not from the perspective of its efficiency (impossible, according to the Grossman-Stiglitz paradox), but from the perspective of its resilience (by which we mean the informational integration of noise in the variation of adaptive preference). The project combines, from a methodological point of view, the logical, behaviourist, institutional and quantitative approaches (the latter both from an econometric and a cliometric point of view).

Keywords:

1. Adaptive preferences
2. Natural price
3. Efficient market hypothesis (EMH)
4. Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH)
5. Autopoietic market